Over the course of two years, between August 2021 and August 2023, CIMA Research Foundation participated in the program, Addressing Drivers and Facilitating Safe, Orderly and Regular Migration in the Contexts of Disasters and Climate Change in the IGAD Region, dedicated to facilitating regularized migration in the African IGAD region. In this context, we developed a modeling framework for assessing possible displacement under different scenarios of rapid-onset events , yet flexible and able to be employed in future for slower-onset events as well.
The project
The region covered by the Intergovernamental Authority on Development (IGAD), an organization that brings together the countries of the Horn of Africa, includes areas affected by conflict and particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. These elements cause massive mobilizations of people to be observed in the region: the overall purpose of theAddressing Drivers and Facilitating Safe, Orderly and Regular Migration in the Contexts of Disasters and Climate Change in the IGAD Region programme, funded by the Multi-Partner Trust Fund (MPTF), was to facilitate regularized migration in the IGAD region and minimize the risk of displacement caused by disasters related to climate change, environmental degradation, in line with the vision and guiding principles of the United Nations’ Global Compact for Safe, Orderly and Regular Migration (GCM).
Results
- Development and drafting of two probabilistic regional risk profiles for the assessment of potential displaced persons due to floods and cyclones in the IGAD region
- Development of an agent-based model for predicting displaced persons in case of floods considering different mitigation options and related comparative report – Sudan pilot area
- Transfer of knowledge and skills in the use of models and profiles developed at ICPAC, the IGAD Center for Climate Forecasting and Analysis
CIMA Research Foundation’s contribution
Working in close collaboration with the IGAD Climate Prediction and Application Centre (ICPAC), we built a modeling framework capable of estimating the volume of displaced people under different sudden-onset disaster scenarios, particularly floods and cyclones. This type of model helps support operational and policy decision-making by IGAD member states, while also testing possible measures to reduce migration.
The framework created also considers conflicts as a factor that can influence migration. In addition, while focused on rapid-onset hazards, it was developed so that it could then be adapted to slower-onset hazards, such as droughts. In this sense, the project coordinated with similar initiatives in the region (e.g., GIZ Global Program Human Mobility in the Context of Climate Change).
To this end, data were collected on the socioeconomic context, climate, and time series of environmental events, which could be used in the model to simulate the effectiveness of different mitigation actions, investments, and programmatic interventions, to support decision making.