Every year, especially in the summer, wildfires modify the landscape and endanger human populations. It is possible to evaluate the risk of wildfires in specific areas and predict how they will evolve with mathematical models based on parameters that define their characteristics and development. From this evaluation, authorities can then establish prevention measures in risk zones before the ignition of a fire or find the best management strategies if it has already developed.
Department activities – The Wildfire Risk Management and Forest Conservation Department works on the forecasting and prevention of wildfire risk. It aims to improve the accuracy of modelling to determine when and where a fire can develop. The integration of meteorological data, topography, and the characteristics of vegetation to mathematical models allows for the generation of risk indicators. These indicators, in turn, provide the groundwork for efficient communication between the different stakeholders involved in risk management procedures.
Moreover, the department has also conducted fieldwork analyses in some experimental sites and at the Pian dei Corsi forest nursery, which CIMA Research Foundation has managed until 2020 and where it has been possible to follow all the growth phases of the most representative species of the Mediterranean area in relation to weather and climate variability. The plants conserved in the nursery have also been used in experimental activities aimed at the restoration of areas ravaged by fire and at mitigation of fire risk.
Main tools/projects – Satellite data, drone data and data from cameras are used to integrate information about vegetation characteristics into models developed by the researchers, identifying periods in which vulnerability to fire is higher. These open-source models allow for the evaluation of the possible behavior a fire. This supports the creation of an early-warning system through which authorities can establish specific prevention and mitigation measures.
The department works with the Italian Civil Protection Department for the support in fire risk prevention at the national and the regional level, and with the Corpo Nazionale dei Vigili del Fuoco , the Italian agency for fire service, for the management of the intervention by developing simulation scenarios. At the international level, the department supports the danger forecasting activities of Lebanese, Albanian and Catalan Civil Protection, of High Corsica firefighters and, more recently, of the Defensa Civil Vice Ministry of Bolivia. Moreover, within the ARISTOTLE-ENHSP project, the department is a scientific partner responsible for the emission of risk forecast bulletin on the pan-European level.
