In 2023, CIMA Research Foundation was engaged by the World Bank in the second phase of the Economics for Disaster Prevention and Preparedness initiative, a comprehensive study funded by DG ECHO, assessing the costs and benefits of disaster resilience investments and their financing at national and European levels. With the project titled Wildfire Risk Analytics for European Countries, we contribute to the initiative by conducting wildfire risk analysis for four European countries (Bulgaria, Croatia, Romania, and Greece).
What is the project about, and what is the role of CIMA Research Foundation?
As part of the broader Economics for Disaster Prevention and Preparedness initiative, a series of activities were carried out focusing on wildfire risk assessment and evaluations of average annual losses under present and future climate conditions, considering various climate change scenarios. Specifically, the project involved the development of models for susceptibility, hazard, risk, and social vulnerability to wildfires for current and future climate conditions, as well as studying the financial impacts of wildfires.
In this context, CIMA Research Foundation was tasked with providing wildfire risk statistics for each country in the next decades. These evaluations have been addressed computing wildfire susceptibility and hazard maps through machine learning techniques linking historical burned areas to climate and territorial conditions of the events. Coupling hazard maps with specific categories of exposed elements led to the assessment of the risk at the national level under both current and future climate conditions in Bulgaria, Croatia, Romania, and Greece. Our approach involves using machine learning algorithms and empirical probability density functions to conduct risk assessments at high spatial (100m) and temporal (annual) resolutions with the ultimate goal to estimate the evolution of average annual losses due to wildfires occurrences for the present and future. The results of this work will be presented on a dashboard developed as part of the project, enabling consultation across different climate change scenarios.
What are the expected results?
- Wildfire susceptibility maps for historical (2008-2019) and present climate conditions
- Wildfire susceptibility maps for future conditions encompassing both average maps for two timeframes (2023-2040 and 2041-2060) and single annual maps
- Wildfire hazard maps for historical (2008-2019) and present climate conditions
- Wildfire hazard maps for future conditions encompassing both average maps for two timeframes (2023-2040 and 2041-2060) and single annual maps.
- Maps of differences from present conditions
- Social vulnerability risk index to wildfires for present conditions in the 4 countries
- Estimation of the average annual losses for the following categories at risk
- Residential buildings
- Education facilities
- Healthcare facilities
- Commercial facilities
- Industrial facilities
- Forests (coniferous and broadleaved forests)
- Road network
- People
- Set of plots and chart as results of risk analytics
- Web application for dive into the results