In 2022, CIMA Research Foundation started collaborating with the International Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC), dedicated to studying the risk of forced displacement of people due to natural hazards in the Horn of Africa area and some island states in the Pacific Ocean.
How does the project work?
Natural hazards, such as floods and droughts, can be an important cause of displacement or forced displacement of people, especially given that such hazards can be exacerbated in some areas by climate change. The collaboration between CIMA Research Foundation and IDMC was created precisely to estimate this risk, including by developing innovative methodologies for its quantification.
Initially, the work focused on Fiji and Vanuatu, for which CIMA Foundation was tasked with estimating displacement risk related to river flooding (the results of this work are compiled in a report published in late 2022). From 2023, the collaboration has expanded to include research work to assess the risk of floods and droughts that can cause internal migration in Ethiopia, Somalia, and Sudan.
What are the expected results?
- Probabilistic assessment of displacement risk induced by riverine floods in Ethiopia, Somalia, and Sudan, considering concepts of vulnerability and functionality (damage to livelihoods)
- A new exposure model for Somalia, Fiji and Vanuatu, based on global and local information
- Quantitative metrics for assessing displacement risk under current and projected climate conditions for Horn of Africa and Pacific Small Island Developing States (SIDS)
What does CIMA Research Foundation do?
CIMA Research Foundation performs an assessment the risk of population displacement
in Ethiopia, Somalia, and Sudan due to the occurrence of floods and droughts under different climate change scenarios. For this assessment, based on local data, it employed an assessment methodology that considers not only the loss of housing but also that related to livelihoods. CIMA has also analyzed the role of damage to services (schools and hospitals) in the displacement, while keeping it as a separate figure to be incorporated into the assessment during future studies.