The ARIMA project, co-funded by the European Union, aimed to strengthen risk assessment capacities and systematically integrate risk information within planning and decision-making processes. Lasting two years (January 2019-December 2020, although due to the COVID-19 pandemic it was extended until July 2021), the project’s work was focused on Marrakech-Safi, one of the twelve regions into which Morocco is divided.
Despite being the third richest region in the country, Marrakech-Safi is particularly exposed to risks such as drought, flooding, and soil erosion. Climate change could further worsen these risks. In particular, experts expect rising temperatures to be accompanied by decreasing precipitation; together, these phenomena could exacerbate the risk of drought in the region. In addition, rising seas could lead to greater coastal erosion.
It is in this context that the ARIMA project has been set up, focusing on two specific objectives: on the one hand, to identify the sources, locations and possible risk dynamics of different natural hazards and, on the other hand, to use this information for preventive actions and improved planning. More specifically, the five international partners have developed a multi-hazard spatial platform based on innovative methods of simulation and risk assessment, capable of providing information up to 2050. The latter can be integrated into risk management processes and adaptation strategies, helping the definition of risk prevention and mitigation measures.
As part of the ARIMA project, CIMA Research Foundation was responsible for developing modeling for the creation of hazard maps for flood risk. The approach used included the use of hydrological modeling, to which was added a geomorphological approach for the definition of hazard maps for fixed return times. The Foundation was also involved in the definition of hazard mapping for soil erosion risk. In both cases, the proposed methodologies were applied to both current climate conditions and to climate conditions predicted by climate change scenarios, so that possible variations could be assessed. The results of this work, covering homogeneously the whole territory of Marrakech-Safi, has been made available to local authorities through the platform developed in the project and will be one of the main inputs for risk analysis.
CIMA Research Foundation was also in charge of coordinating the preparation of the trainings dedicated to technicians and officials of the main stakeholders in the area, with the aim of making them autonomous in understanding and using the project results. Due to the international situation and in particular to COVID-19 pandemics, the trainings could not take place during the project period; therefore, CIMA Research Foundation organized all the contents of the trainings in an e-learning course, available on its Moodle platform. All the material is now available to the stakeholders and can be used as a basis for the courses as soon as conditions allow.