Snow and water resources in Italy: the balance between accumulation and melt is back in play

April 17, 2026

“Aprile non ti scoprire,” as the Italian saying goes, don’t shed your layers just yet. An expression that also aptly describes the evolution of snow water resources in Italy. After an intense melt phase between February and early March, the second half of March brought colder conditions and fresh snowfall, introducing a temporary pause in the seasonal decline.

By mid-April, however, at the national scale, the snowpack has returned to its natural melt cycle, with a Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) deficit of about –11%. The season has entered its final phase, though not without a few unexpected turns along the way.

Fig. 1. Evolution of snow water equivalent in Italy. The orange line represents the snow water equivalent for the current season, aggregated over the entire national territory. The light blue line represents the total snow water equivalent for the previous season, while the grey line and shaded area indicate, respectively, the long-term average and interannual variability.

A pause in the melt: the role of temperature and precipitation

March showed a less linear behavior compared to previous months. Temperatures across much of Italy’s mountainous regions were below average, particularly in the Alps and the central Apennines.

This cooling temporarily slowed the melting of the snowpack, especially around mid-month. At the same time, new precipitation, falling as snow at higher elevations, affected several Alpine sectors, particularly in Piemonte, as well as large areas of the Apennines.

The result was a short but significant recovery in SWE, observable until early April. A clear example of how snow resources are governed by a continuous balance between temperature conditions and snowfall.

Anomaly T — *Fig. 2. Temperature anomaly in Italy for March.*

Anomaly P — *Fig. 3. Precipitation anomaly in Italy for March.*

Apennines: a late but significant recovery

It is in the Apennines that this balance produced the most evident effects. Late-season snowfall brought the snowpack to its highest seasonal peak of the entire winter (+59%) in early April.

Fig. 4. Integrated Snow Water Equivalent evolution across the Italian Apennines. The orange line represents the SWE for the current season; the light blue line represents last season; the grey line and shaded band indicate the historical mean and interannual variability.

This represents a positive signal for local water resources, but one that must be interpreted with caution. As this season has shown, a late recovery cannot fully compensate for deficits accumulated during previous months.

In the Sangro basin, for instance, recent snowfall brought SWE close to peak values (around 100 million cubic meters), yet the below-average conditions observed until just a few weeks earlier have already had impacts on ecosystems, groundwater recharge, and water resource management.

Fig. 5. Trend of snow water equivalent in the Sangro River basin. The orange line represents the snow water equivalent for the current season. The light blue line represents the total snow water equivalent for the previous season, while the grey line and shaded area indicate, respectively, the long-term average and interannual variability.

As noted by Francesco Avanzi, snow hydrology researcher at CIMA Research Foundation: “Snow water resources are not a snapshot of a single event, but the sum of the entire season. When snowfall arrives late and all at once, it can reshape the landscape in just a few days, but it cannot fully rewrite what happened in previous months. This inevitably affects how much water will actually be available downstream. From a hydrological perspective, it is not only the amount of snowfall that matters, but also when it accumulates and how it evolves over time: a season with late accumulation alters the timing and volume of melt, influencing runoff and water availability in the following months.”

Alps: a season already in the melt phase

Moving north, the situation appears more stable but already well into the final phase of the season. The Italian Alps are currently slightly below average, with a deficit of about –16%, and have been in continuous melt since late February.

Fig. 6. Integrated Snow Water Equivalent evolution across the Italian Alps. The orange line represents the snow water equivalent for the current season. The light blue line represents the total snow water equivalent for the previous season, while the grey line and shaded area indicate, respectively, the long-term average and interannual variability.

Here too, late-March snowfall caused a temporary increase, but without changing the overall picture: the seasonal transition from snow to water is now underway, in line with the time of year and the approaching irrigation season.

Po and Adige: contrasting dynamics

Among Italy’s major river basins, clear differences emerge.

SWE Rivers Italy - Snow and Water Resources: April, Between Accumulation and Melting — Fig. 7. Percentage of Snow Water Equivalent in the main Italian basins.

rank fiumi neve 12 aprile — *Fig. 8. Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) values observed on April 12 across the monitored river basins for each year from 2011 to 2026.*

The Po basin continues to stand out for its near-equilibrium conditions: SWE remains close to the seasonal average (–1%). This is particularly notable when compared to the widespread perception of an exceptionally snowy winter.

“The general perception has been that this was an exceptionally snowy winter, but the data tell a different story: rather than extraordinary, this season has largely been in line with climatology. It is a form of ‘normality’ we are no longer used to, especially after years of declining snow, particularly at mid to low elevations,” Avanzi explains.

Fig. 9. Trend of snow water equivalent in the Po River basin. The orange line represents the snow water equivalent for the current season. The light blue line represents the total snow water equivalent for the previous season, while the grey line and shaded area indicate, respectively, the long-term average and interannual variability.

This “normality,” however, is not uniform across elevations. Conditions are close to average mainly above 2500 meters, while snow deficits persist at mid to low elevations, a recurring feature in recent years.

Fig. 10. Snow water equivalent (SWE) anomaly, represented by one point every 100 metres of elevation, highlighting the elevational distribution of the deficit across the Po River basin.

In contrast, the Adige basin still shows a significant deficit (–41%), with conditions comparable to those observed in 2022. Melt is already underway here as well, but starting from a lower-than-normal snow accumulation.

Fig. 11. Trend of snow water equivalent in the Adige River basin. The orange line represents the snow water equivalent for the current season. The light blue line represents the total snow water equivalent for the previous season, while the grey line and shaded area indicate, respectively, the long-term average and interannual variability.

What to expect next: temperature as the dominant driver

Looking ahead, temperature will play the dominant role. During the melt phase, it is the key factor controlling how quickly snow is transformed into water.

Seasonal forecasts from ECMWF indicate a warmer-than-average spring, suggesting an acceleration of melt processes compared to climatological norms. On the precipitation side, however, signals remain uncertain, making it difficult to identify clear opportunities for further recovery.

20260411102620 5bbf09157c790021f3caa592919771a05b4e9192 — *Fig. 12. Forecast of average temperature anomalies for April 2026 relative to the climatological average (source: ECMWF).*

20260411220053 16e4a732c5dfa0635ff149dae6b3250c7a828382 — *Fig. 13. Forecast of total precipitation anomalies for April 2026 relative to the climatological average (source: ECMWF).*

Toward the end of the season

The snow season has now entered its final stage. The focus is no longer on accumulation, but on transformation: how quickly the snow will melt and how much water will ultimately reach rivers, lakes, and reservoirs.

The next update, scheduled for May, will also be the last of this season. It will provide an opportunity to assess not only how the snowpack evolved, but above all its real contribution to summer water availability.