Every year, the EGU General Assembly brings thousands of scientists from around the world to Vienna, united by their work on Earth sciences, climate, the environment, and natural hazards. This year too, CIMA Research Foundation is contributing to EGU25 with a range of presentations spanning snow and glacier dynamics, fire modeling, satellite data for water management, and risk communication through artistic and participatory tools. This variety highlights how research is increasingly called upon to interpret complexity and risk through integrated, multidisciplinary approaches that span different spatial and temporal scales.
Climate change, meteorology, and satellite data
Earth observation is at the core of monitoring and modeling strategies for environmental phenomena: satellite data are used to analyze vegetation dynamics, estimate evapotranspiration, and assess the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity and Alpine biodiversity (“Monitoring climate and land-use change impacts on Alpine grassland vegetation dynamics and carbon sinks”). For agriculture and other vulnerable sectors such as spatial planning, seasonal weather forecasts also provide essential support: performance analyses highlight their application potential and existing limitations that must be addressed for greater operational effectiveness (“Assessing the skill of Copernicus seasonal forecast systems in predicting temperature and precipitation anomalies in the Alpine region”).
An integrated approach that combines various sources of observation and forms of knowledge for collecting meteorological data forms the basis for advanced numerical modeling. At the same time, the role of active citizenship is becoming increasingly important, contributing in a widespread and continuous way to the generation of environmental information. Citizen science initiatives such as those promoted by the I-CHANGE project are fundamental to integrating traditional monitoring with proximity measurements validated through participatory activities. An example is the MeteoTrackers initiative, which uses portable sensors distributed to the population to collect data on temperature, humidity, and other microclimatic parameters (“ MeteoTrackers (MT) in Citizens Science – A New Era in Micrometeorology or just an Instrument for education? Lessons from MT operations within I-CHANGE EU project “). During the I-CHANGE Day, citizens are also contributed to the collection of data on air pollution and hurban thermal comfort, actively participating in environmental monitoring (“Citizen science in action: air pollution campaigns and thermal comfort assessment from I-CHANGE Day”).
Digital tools such as apps, dashboards, and educational platforms complete this ecosystem: they enable the real-time collection and visualization of environmental information, promote sustainable behaviors through gamification, and disseminate knowledge via online learning pathways. (“The I-CHANGE Dashboard: A tool for raising awareness and triggering behavioural change”, “ChallengeYeti App: Bridging the Knowledge-Action Gap through Gamification and Digital Engagement”, “The I-CHANGE MOOC: ensuring cross-fertilisation and knowledge-sharing on citizen science for climate action and risk prevention beyond European Living Labs”).
High-resolution meteorological data and satellite observations are also combined with hydrological surveys and morphological parameters so they can be integrated into numerical models capable of simulating hydrological dynamics in complex environments (“Leveraging Satellite-Derived Reservoir Data for Enhanced Hydrological Model Calibration: Towards Advanced Flood Prediction in Dam-Regulated Basins”).
Hydrology, snow, and advanced modeling
Distributed models used to simulate the water balance integrate snow, soil, vegetation, and basin morphology, operating even at spatial resolutions below one kilometer. Some employ energy and thermodynamic schemes to describe snowpack evolution, while others use modular structures coupling snow dynamics with surface and subsurface runoff modeling, accounting for processes like melting, percolation, and accumulation. To improve runoff forecasts and reduce modeling uncertainty, data assimilation techniques using neural networks or stochastic approaches are integrated. This hybrid architecture accurately represents hydrological variability at both local and basin scales, enhancing forecasting capabilities and resource management (“Modeling snowpack evolution and water discharge in the Po River basin at 1 km resolution: a retrospective analysis (1991-2020)”).
The combined use of multi-source observations and data assimilation techniques applied to a Mediterranean basin enables a more accurate representation of snow dynamics and their hydrological implications (“A Comprehensive Snow Modeling Using Multi-Source Data and Assimilation for a Refined Characterization of a Complex Mediterranean Basin”). In areas like northern Italy, simulation accuracy for runoff is also improved by assessing Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) estimates from reanalysis products and hydrological models (“Assessment of Snow Water Equivalent Estimates from Reanalysis and Rainfall-Runoff Modeling in Northern Italy”). New accuracy frontiers are being explored through the integration of physical modeling and machine learning using neural networks for data assimilation (“Learning to filter: Snow data assimilation using a Long Short-Term Memory network”).
In Alpine and Mediterranean areas, reductions in winter snow and rising temperatures are reshaping eco-hydrological balances. Snow droughts—extended periods of snow scarcity—alter runoff dynamics, affect agricultural productivity, and change vegetation cycles (“Impacts of Mediterranean snow droughts on mountain socio-ecohydrology”). These new interactions between climate, snow, and vegetation responses also emerge from the eco-hydrological analysis of the snow drought that affected the Velino-Salto mountain basin in central Italy (“Eco-hydrological insights from a snow drought in a Mediterranean mountainous catchment in Central Italy”).
In these contexts, the interaction between snow and glaciers produces unexpected effects: in drought years, glacier melt can become the main source of summer water, at the expense of long-term sustainability (“The 2022 – 2023 snow drought in the Italian Alps doubled glacier contribution to summer streamflow”, discussed also here).
Drought: monitoring, impacts, governance
Drought emerges as a systemic phenomenon that connects environmental, climatic, hydrological, and socio-economic dimensions. The World Drought Atlas offers an overview of drought characteristics on a global scale, based on a systematic analysis of past events conducted through historical climate and hydrological data series. This reconstruction provides a key reference for assessing the vulnerability of natural and human systems, helping to build a shared hydro-climatic memory, essential not only for more effective current adaptation and mitigation strategies but also to reduce future risks (“The World Drought Atlas: a wake-up call on drought risks and resilience”).
Understanding how vegetation responds to different drought attributes also allows for identifying critical thresholds and particularly vulnerable areas. Vegetation responses to Mediterranean droughts are central to an analysis of rainfall regimes and ecosystem resilience (“Vegetation response components to drought regimes attributes in the Mediterranean Basin”). In Alpine agricultural systems, direct evapotranspiration measurement plays a key role in smart water management, improving irrigation strategies and supporting more sustainable mountain agriculture (“Supporting Next-Generation Agriculture in the Alps: Direct Evapotranspiration Measurements for Smarter Water Management”).
In complex vulnerability contexts like Sudan, drought risk intertwines with political, social, and food security dynamics, raising critical questions about the role of scientific and humanitarian cooperation (“Drought Risk Assessment in Crisis Context: A Collaborative Approach for Sudan”).
Bridging scientific research and practical management is essential for improving readiness to drought events. Experiences in the European Alps highlight the value of integrating science with local contexts to enhance response capacity (“Enhancing the readiness for drought events in the European Alps bridging research and practice”). In parallel, advanced textual analysis and machine learning techniques are used to collect information on drought impacts from unstructured sources such as newspaper articles and local reports (“Advancing drought impact data collection for the Italian Alps through automatic harvesting and analysis of textual data”).
Special Mention: Union Symposium 4 – Achieving Water Resilience
Water, climate crisis, and future scenarios. The Union Symposium1 4 – Achieving Water Resilience will focus on one of the most urgent global challenges, involving international experts and institutions to explore new perspectives on water resilience. Among the co-conveners is Lauro Rossi, Programme Director at CIMA Research Foundation.
Forest fires and evolving risk
Wildfire risk is also evolving: longer seasons, extreme weather, and land use changes are making fires more intense and unpredictable. Understanding these dynamics requires models like PROPAGATOR, which can represent not only fire spread but also fuel evolution and transitions from surface to crown fires (“Expanding PROPAGATOR Cellular Automata based wildfire simulator to represent surface and crown fire transitions”). Here too, artificial intelligence is employed to support the generation of dynamic fuel maps, updated in near real-time and useful for risk forecasting and planning (“Climate driven dynamic fuel maps in wildfire management under climate change: an AI approach”). Probabilistic analysis, meanwhile, allows for evaluating the frequency and intensity of extreme events, offering a quantitative framework for prevention and response (“Probabilistic Analysis of Extreme Wildfire events in Italy Using Data-Cube Technology”).
Beyond modeling and forecasting tools, assessing the quality and operational effectiveness of fire danger rating systems is crucial. One such system is RISICO, which uses a fuel-aware approach to distinguish danger levels based on vegetation type and condition (“Fuel-aware Forest Fire Danger Rating System RISICO: a comparative study for Italy”).
Special Mention: Wildfire Science Officer
La presenza a EGU si declina anche attraverso ruoli di coordinamento scientifico, come quello dei Science Officer, che contribuiscono a costruire il programma stesso della conferenza, nei suoi aspetti più strategici e tematici. Il nostro ricercatore Andrea Trucchia partecipa come Science officer della Sessione NH 7 – Natural Hazard: Wildfires, dedicata allo studio del rischio incendi.
Early warning systems, decision-making, and technology
The rising frequency and intensity of extreme events make strengthening early warning systems a pressing need. These systems must integrate predictive models, impact indicators, and socio-economic data. Experimental work involving knowledge graphs and augmented intelligence allows for structuring and interconnecting knowledge in support of early warning (“Bridging Risk Knowledge and Operational Outcomes through Retrieval-Augmented Generation and Knowledge Graphs for Early Warning Systems”).
Effectiveness also relies on adaptability: urban, mountain, and rural areas, as well as highly vulnerable regions like Southeast Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa, each present unique challenges. Experiences in Laos, Cambodia, and the Horn of Africa show how flexible and participatory systems can improve preparedness and reduce exposure (“Impact-based flood early warning in Lao PDR and Cambodia”, “Towards actionable impact-based early warning for floods and droughts in the Greater Horn of Africa”). In Africa, innovations developed within the Africa Multi-Hazard Early Warning and Action System (AMHEWAS) enhance anticipation and response capabilities, especially in drought monitoring (“Enhancing Drought Risk Monitoring for Disaster Risk Reduction: Innovations in the Africa Multi-Hazard Early Warning and Action System (AMHEWAS)”).
In Europe, the ARISTOTLE-ENHSP project provides the EU Civil Protection with a multi-hazard expert assessment service, improving the response to complex emergencies (“ARISTOTLE-ENHSP Project: a multi-hazard scientific expert assessment service for the EC Emergency Response Coordination Center”).
Global flood displacement risk assessment is another emerging field, with models estimating the potential population impacts of extreme events on a worldwide scale (“Global flood displacement risk assessment”).
Communication, art, participation
Understanding risk is not only a scientific or cognitive process—it is also an emotional, symbolic, and cultural experience. For this reason, art and storytelling can be powerful tools for awareness and transformation. The performance Lament of Ur, for example, portrays aridity as a collective trauma, weaving mythology, sound, and scientific data to evoke the impacts of drought past and present (“Lament of Ur: Addressing Drought Through Art”).
Building resilience requires transdisciplinary approaches that connect science, institutions, and citizens. This is seen in integrated models for urban traffic policies that simulate complex scenarios to support more effective and sustainable decisions (“Integrated modelling chain for tailored traffic policy interventions”).
In this perspective, participation becomes an integral part of knowledge production. It’s no longer just about communicating scientific results, but co-producing them, actively involving communities. The Science is We initiative proposes a model where power in knowledge generation is shared, with citizens becoming co-authors of data, interpretations, and solutions (“Science is We: towards co-equal power sharing in scientific knowledge production”).
Beyond data, images can also tell the story of change. With Climate Objective, promoted by CIMA Research Foundation within the I-CHANGE project alongside the Italian Amateur Photographers Union (UIF), amateur photographers were invited to visually document climate change. The evocative power of photography makes abstract phenomena tangible, bringing the public closer to scientific evidence (“CLIMATE OBJECTIVE: I-CHANGE and UIF amateur photographers’ alliance for climate”).
Experiences such as the Adaptation AGORA project show how the participatory approach can be scaled up to a European level to tackle urban climate risks through inclusive and co-designed tools (“A cross European participatory approach to addressing urban climate risks, lessons learned from the Adaptation AGORA’s pilot regions”). This principle is also found in European Living Labs, where participatory science promotes more sustainable urban behaviors (“Comparative Insights from Living Labs: Driving Sustainable Urban Behaviors through Participatory Science”).
The communication effectiveness of the I-CHANGE project also materializes in the Environmental Impact Hub, a digital space where the environmental effects of individual and collective actions are visualized and narrated (“The I-CHANGE Environmental Impact Hub (EIH)”). The project has also produced systemic outcomes, spreading environmental awareness and sustainable behaviors through innovative communication and engagement methodologies (“Fostering Environmental Awareness Through Innovation: Outcomes from the I-CHANGE Project”).
Finally, in an era of pervasive climate misinformation, strengthening digital literacy is crucial. Interactive and educational tools help citizens navigate complex information, enhancing their ability to make informed decisions and become more resilient (“Digital tools for capacity building, a tangible support for citizens to tackle climate disinformation and be more resilient”).
Special mention: H2020 I-CHANGE Final Scientific Event
Among the key moments of EGU2025 is the final scientific event of the H2020 I-CHANGE project, dedicated to the role of citizen science in climate action. The session brings together researchers, citizens, and local stakeholders to share the results of the Living Labs and present innovative tools such as the Citizens4Climate Dashboard and the ChallengeYeti app. An opportunity to reflect on the project’s legacy, its communication strategies, and the dialogue established with policy makers.
Special Mention: the MAELSTROM Project
A virtuous example of public participation in scientific research: in the session “Empowering Communities: Citizen Science and Engagement in Tackling Plastic Pollution”, the MAELSTROM project will be showcased as a best practice in the field of citizen science and community engagement.
The complexity of risk requires a science capable of observing, modeling, and narrating it. At EGU 2025, CIMA Research Foundation offers insight into this complexity: from snow to fire, from drought to participation, each contribution is a piece of the mosaic that helps us interpret the present and imagine more resilient futures.
- Union Symposia at EGU are high-level plenary sessions designed to address interdisciplinary topics of strategic relevance for science and society. ↩︎