Recent months have seen above-average temperatures across Italy, particularly in the Centre and North. But what is the impact on water availability? Higher temperatures mean that, even after abundant winter precipitation (as in 2026), water resources are “depleted” more rapidly than usual.
CIMA Research Foundation examines the relationship between water resources and extreme temperatures, comparing current conditions with the “Great Drought” that affected Northern Italy in 2022.
Extreme temperatures: how are they affecting water availability?
How much are the high temperatures currently affecting Italy impacting water availability? Do heat and drought necessarily go hand in hand? What can we expect in the coming months? The spectre of the 2022 water crisis (when more than 6 million people across the Po River Basin faced water-use restrictions1) is once again looming over Northern Italy. From the perspective of drought prevention and forecasting, it is therefore useful to examine what the data tell us.
It is now well established that temperatures have been exceptionally high: across almost all of Italy, temperatures over recent months have ranged between +1°C and +2°C above the climatological average, particularly in the Centre and North. In some areas of the Po Plain (Emilia-Romagna and Veneto), anomalies have exceeded +2°C, while preliminary June data collected by regional authorities and compiled by SNPA indicate that some locations have recorded temperatures more than +4°C above historical averages.
To make a meaningful comparison in relation to the topic under discussion – the relationship between water resources and high temperatures – it is important to note that May 2022 was generally much warmer than May 2026. By contrast, the March-May period of this year was warmer overall than the corresponding period in 2022. We are therefore comparing a single warmer month (followed by an exceptionally hot June) with a preceding three-month period that was, on average, warmer. It is still too early to make further comparisons, as more consolidated data are needed – summer is far from over – but these initial observations are certainly worth bearing in mind.
Below-average rainfall, but a different situation compared with 2022
Looking again at the March-May 2026 period, precipitation was slightly below average across Northern Italy and along the Tyrrhenian coast, with reductions generally ranging between -30% and -50%, and locally exceeding -50% in some Alpine and southern Tyrrhenian areas. Other parts of the country, particularly the southern Adriatic coast, experienced substantial precipitation surpluses (locally exceeding +50%), although these were associated with short-lived, high-intensity rainfall events.
May itself was particularly dry across the country, with precipitation deficits well below -50% in many northern regions (especially across the Alps and the northern Apennines) as well as in central and southern Italy. Once again, isolated areas recorded precipitation surpluses (for example, northern Tuscany), resulting from intense but short-duration rainfall events.
Compared with current conditions, 2022 was considerably more severe, with precipitation anomalies well below -50% across virtually the entire country.
How heat is reshaping the water cycle: snow, evapotranspiration and soil moisture
To understand this relationship, we should first consider snow. After three consecutive years of snow scarcity, snow water resources feeding the Po River returned to historical average conditions in 2026 thanks to abundant winter snowfall. However, the exceptionally high temperatures have caused snowmelt to accelerate far more rapidly than usual, bringing snow water resource conditions down to levels only slightly better than those observed at the beginning of May 2022. This does not mean that the snow water accumulated during the past winter has been lost; rather, it has simply flowed into the Po River earlier than usual.
Higher temperatures mean that, even after abundant winter precipitation (as in 2026), water resources are depleted more rapidly than under normal conditions. Other parts of the country experienced more critical snow conditions. Across the Triveneto region and the Apennines, snow water accumulation remained generally below average throughout winter 2026, with conditions similar to those observed in north-eastern Italy during 2022.
From the perspective of the balance between evapotranspiration (the amount of water returning to the atmosphere from soils and vegetation) and precipitation, increasing signs of stress have progressively emerged over the past three months across the Po Plain and the southern Tyrrhenian regions. This imbalance is clearly driven both by reduced precipitation and, above all, by the high temperatures recorded in these areas. Once again, the situation resembles that observed during the same period in 2022, although it remains geographically less widespread.
Another important indicator is soil moisture. By the end of May, moderate signs of water stress had already emerged, although they remained less extensive than those observed in 2022. Soil moisture conditions can change very rapidly, however, and more robust assessments will only be possible once data from the first ten days of July become available.
Drought in 2026: are we facing another 2022?
In summary, are current conditions comparable to those experienced in Northern Italy during 2022? No, or at least not yet, thanks to the abundant precipitation recorded during the past winter. However, continuous and intensive monitoring remains essential, as the persistently high temperatures of recent weeks have the potential to drive the water cycle towards water scarcity.
As always, anticipating critical situations is essential to enable action before emergencies develop, helping to avoid the inevitable conflicts over water resources experienced in the past. As previously noted, the ongoing heatwave is not currently related to the well-known El Niño phenomenon, since current climate models indicate that its effects are more likely to emerge during the coming winter.
What we are observing today is the impact of sustained high temperatures, to which climate change has increasingly accustomed us, and the way these temperatures are driving the water cycle towards water scarcity.