From 10 countries in 2015 to 26 in 2026: in just over a decade, the number of African countries with multi-hazard early warning systems has more than doubled. How to consolidate this progress and turn it into increasingly widespread and sustainable operational capacity is one of the key issues at the Africa Early Warnings Forum 2026, currently taking place in Addis Ababa.
How can a forecast be translated into a timely decision? And how can an early warning system remain fully operational and sustainable beyond the lifespan of individual projects?
These are two of the key questions at the Africa Early Warnings Forum, taking place from 2 to 4 September in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. The Forum brings together around 400 representatives from governments, regional organisations, scientific institutions, international agencies, the private sector and civil society to take stock of the implementation of Early Warnings for All (EW4All) and, above all, to address the conditions needed to make early warning systems increasingly operational, sustainable and embedded within institutions.
The challenge is particularly tangible in Africa. The number of countries reporting multi-hazard early warning systems has increased from 10 in 2015 to 26 in 2026, yet significant gaps remain in observation networks, forecasting infrastructure, connectivity, institutional coordination and last-mile communication.
It is precisely in the space between having a forecast and being able to act on it that AMHEWAS, the African Union’s Africa Multi-Hazard Early Warning and Early Action System, operates
AMHEWAS: building a network, not just tools
This approach has been clearly reflected in the discussions at the Forum from the opening ceremony onwards. In his remarks, Mr Harsen Nyambe, Director for Sustainable Environment and Blue Economy at the African Union Commission, cited CIMA Research Foundation among the technical partners that have contributed to the development of AMHEWAS. CIMA’s contribution was also highlighted during the plenary on Technology, Innovation and AI, where it was acknowledged by Ms Nina Bekele, Product Partnerships Manager, Social Impact at Google. This collaboration has been built over the years around the different elements required to make an early warning system operational: tools and products, but also procedures, expertise and institutional capacities, from continental to regional and national levels.
It is therefore significant that, in the Forum’s opening discussion on the status of multi-hazard early warning systems in Africa, AMHEWAS was repeatedly highlighted as one of the continent’s flagship initiatives. Today, the system connects Situation Rooms operating at different levels with shared analysis and monitoring tools and operational products, enabling information to flow across continental, regional and national scales, and between those who generate risk knowledge and those who need to use it to make decisions.
Early warning, in this context, is not treated solely as a forecasting challenge, but as an operational chain. For a forecast to become a warning, and for a warning to translate into action, data, technologies, expertise, procedures and institutional responsibilities must work together.
It is within this operational chain that myDEWETRA.world comes into play. Developed by CIMA Research Foundation for the Italian Civil Protection Department, the platform is used within the AMHEWAS network to integrate, visualise and analyse monitoring and forecasting data. In doing so, it provides a shared information environment for the production of standardised operational products, from the Continental Watch, which provides forecasts up to five days ahead for heavy rainfall, strong winds and floods, to Emergency Situation Reports issued during significant events.
myDEWETRA and CIMA Research Foundation’s contribution to Early Warnings for All are also being showcased at the Forum’s Marketplace, the exhibition space open throughout the event.
Understanding impacts before they become crises
Making the warning chain more efficient, however, is not enough. The way we approach forecasting must also evolve. Knowing that a meteorological or climate event is likely to occur does not yet tell us what its consequences will be: the same phenomenon can produce very different impacts depending on what is exposed — people, infrastructure and economic activities — and on the vulnerabilities of different territories.
One of the areas in which AMHEWAS is evolving is therefore impact-based forecasting, which integrates forecasts of hazardous events with information on exposure and vulnerability. This approach is being pursued, for example, through the Africa Drought Watch: satellite data, climate indicators, seasonal forecasts and knowledge from regional experts are combined to move from monitoring drought conditions to anticipating their potential impacts on agriculture, water resources and other exposed systems.
The Forum’s discussion on the possible evolution of El Niño in 2026 also fits within this perspective. An anomaly originating in the tropical Pacific can alter temperatures and precipitation patterns thousands of kilometres away, with very different consequences across different regions. The operational question, therefore, is not only how the phenomenon will evolve, but where and how its effects may translate into risk, and how potential responses can be prepared in advance.
More broadly, this is where the maturity of early warning systems is increasingly being tested: from data availability to the capacity to use data; from forecasting events to anticipating impacts; from early warning to early action.
Technology and infrastructure are essential components, but their value ultimately depends on their ability to become embedded within the institutions that use them. This is why the AMHEWAS pathway also includes operator training, the development of procedures, the co-production of forecasting products and the strengthening of local capacities. Ultimately, the sustainability of an early warning system lies in the ability of institutions to keep it operational over time and to continuously translate risk knowledge into the capacity to act.