In an article dedicated to the governance of displacement in the IGAD region, our researchers describe their work on displacement risk assessment in which socio-economic aspects are integrated into the classical vulnerability estimation
To improve the governance of regional and national migration in the region covered by the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), which brings together the countries of the Horn of Africa, the Migration Multi-Partner Trust Fund has funded the Joint Program Addressing Drivers and Facilitating Safe, Orderly and Regular Migration in the Contexts of Disasters and Climate Change in the IGAD Region, which began in February 2021 and is divided into four action pillars. The first of them, Data and Knowledge, is coordinated by the United Nations Office for Project Services (UNOPS), and sees our researchers engaged in developing a modeling framework capable of estimating the number of people at risk of displacement, i.e. involuntary displacement, due to sudden onset disasters, such as floods and cyclones, under different policy scenarios, taking into account socio-economic factors.
To do this, they are working on a new risk assessment methodology for displacement. This is also discussed in an article recently published in the journal Forced Migration Review. The article, which describes the aims and objectives of the Joint Programme, also explains how in risk modeling, when it comes to migration (displacement) innovative approaches are now needed, which allow to refine the assessment.
Risk, in shortÂ
Before going over this aspect, it is necessary to answer a question: what do we mean when we talk about risk? Very briefly, in mathematical terms, the formula commonly used to calculate it takes into account three elements: hazard, i.e. the probability that an event will occur in a certain period of time and in a certain place; exposure, which considers the number of people in the area, buildings, and infrastructure that may be affected by the hazard, and, finally, vulnerability, referring to the predisposition of the exposed elements (infrastructures but also people, crops, etc.) to suffer damage.
This description, very synthetic, is usually referred to disasters such as floods and earthquakes; in other forms of risk the assessment can be made in a more or less different way. In the field of displacement studies, for example, the vulnerability aspect is calculated only taking into account direct damage to houses: in other words, people are considered to be displacedif their houses are damaged above a certain threshold.
The UNOPS projectÂ
The IGAD Region includes areas affected by conflict and particularly vulnerable to disasters, also related to the effects of climate change. This means that even massive displacements of people can be observed in the region: the aim of the project we are collaborating on is to facilitate regularized displacements and, at the same time, reduce as much as possible displacements due to the effects of extreme events, climate change and environmental degradation.
“In fact, the aim is not so much to limit migration, which in some cases can be seen as a form of adaptation. Rather, the aim is to try to understand how to reduce forced and involuntary displacements in emergency situations, favoring those that occur in “peacetime” and with the conditions to make them safe and regular”, explains Eleonora Panizza, PhD student at the University of Genoa who, at CIMA Research Foundation, follows the project focusing on the analysis of the impact of environmental disasters and climate change on migrations in the IGAD Region. Panizza is among the authors of the paper together with Roberto Rudari, program director of CIMA Research Foundation, and colleagues from IGAD, the International Organization for Migration and the IGAD Predictions and Applications Centre (ICPAC).
Considering vulnerability when studying migrationÂ
“In this sense, as we explained in our article, a key element is precisely the reduction of vulnerability, which allows reducing forced and unmanaged displacement. Moreover, the reduction of vulnerability implies a reduction of risk itself, and this is particularly important if we consider that there are disadvantaged realities, in which, even when a disaster happens, people do not have the possibility to move: we speak, in these cases, of trapped populations”, continues Panizza.
“In our research work, we have therefore proposed a methodology that allows us to best estimate the element of vulnerability for displacement risk assessment. To do so, we want to take into account not only the damage to houses- those traditionally considered in this field – but also to other resources that can be directly affected by a disaster: the tertiary sector, crops and livestock,” Panizza explains. “In addition, we are trying to integrate an aspect that has not yet been applied to this methodology, that of indirect damage. Indeed, we are trying to understand what impact the damage to a given structure may have on people’s living conditions, also in the long term, and how it therefore foster (or disadvantage) migration.”