From wildfire forecasting models in Ethiopia to participatory emergency planning. Two different pathways, one shared objective: making early warning systems more effective and better able to translate warnings into action.
When it comes to early warning systems, technology is only part of the challenge. Improving the accuracy of forecasts of where and when an extreme event may occur is essential, but it is equally important to ensure that this information reaches those who need to use it and can be translated into concrete decisions.
CIMA Research Foundations’s contribution to the MedEWSa project (Mediterranean and pan-European forecast and Early Warning System against natural hazards) has developed along these two lines. Funded by Horizon Europe, the project is dedicated to developing a multi-hazard, impact-based early warning system for the pan-European, Mediterranean and African regions and will conclude in October 2026
On the forecasting side, the work focused on strengthening knowledge and assessment of wildfire risk in Ethiopia through the further development of the RISICO ETHIOPIA and PROPAGATOR systems. In the area of participatory emergency planning, methodological guidelines were developed to involve communities in disaster preparedness and response.
Two different experiences that share the same perspective: translating risk knowledge into practical tools for preparedness and action.
The results of these two strands of work are being presented by CIMA Research Foundation researchers at the MedCLIVAR 2026 conference, taking place from 21 to 25 September in Limassol, Cyprus, and dedicated to a multidisciplinary understanding of the evolution of the Mediterranean climate.
Forecasting wildfires: a system calibrated to local conditions
One of the project’s main outcomes is the strengthening of Ethiopia’s national wildfire early warning system. The initiative, led by CIMA Research Foundation through technical cooperation between the Region of Attica and Ethiopian National Parks, was developed in close collaboration with Ethiopia Forestry Development (EFD), with which CIMA has been working since 20201.
The work enhanced forecasting through the further development of RISICO ETHIOPIA, the wildfire danger forecasting system, and strengthened the capacity to generate fire-spread scenarios through a tailored configuration of PROPAGATOR, the fire-spread model developed by Fondazione CIMA, for three national parks: Bale Mountains, Simien Mountains and Gambella.
“For RISICO, one of the most significant steps was the transition from the African scale to the national scale. The system was reorganised and calibrated using local data and information, enabling a more detailed representation of the different environmental characteristics and wildfire susceptibility of Ethiopia’s bioregions. It is important to bear in mind that the objective is not merely to improve the technical forecasting of wildfire danger, but to build a chain linking modelling, operational information and the capacity to take action on the ground,” explains Andrea Trucchia, a researcher at CIMA Research Foundation.
The model’s development is not confined to research: the information it produces feeds into the Forest Fire Early Warning Bulletin (FFEWB), the operational bulletin issued by EFD three times a week, thereby bringing modelling outputs into decision-making processes.
As for PROPAGATOR, the core code was completely restructured during the project, resulting in a substantial increase in the processing speed of wildfire scenarios. This major improvement strengthens wildfire planning and management activities in the three national parks involved.
The result is therefore a system that links wildfire danger forecasting, local environmental characteristics, fire-spread simulation and operational information: different elements that together strengthen and guide preparedness and response capacity.
From risk knowledge to participation
The ability to forecast an event, however, does not in itself ensure that a warning will lead to an effective response.
An early warning system must also address an equally important question: how can risk information be understood, shared and used by the communities that are exposed to that risk?
This perspective underpins the second strand of work carried out by CIMA Research Foundation through the MedEWSa project: defining a participatory planning approach to disaster preparedness and response.
The main results were incorporated into the Handbook for Best Practices and Warning Messaging Templates to Address Societal Challenges Related to Natural Hazard Effects 2, coordinated by the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre. Within the handbook, CIMA Research Foundation was specifically responsible for the chapter Participatory Approaches for Disaster Preparedness and Response Planning, developing a structured yet flexible framework for integrating communities into preparedness and response processes.
“The idea underpinning this work is simple, but it has important implications: people living with risk possess knowledge, experience and capacities that can contribute to managing it. Involving communities therefore means not merely consulting them, but creating the conditions for them to participate actively in defining strategies, bringing scientific knowledge into dialogue with local knowledge and experience,” explain Isabel Gomes and Filippo Fraschini, researchers at CIMA Research Foundation.
For an approach to be genuinely adopted, knowledge must also be able to circulate beyond the contexts in which it is developed. For this reason, the content of the Handbook chapter was also transformed into an e-learning course developed by ECMWF, designed to make the principles, tools and practical application of participatory planning accessible to a wider audience.
A concrete development that translates project results into operational capacities, moving them from documents and guidelines into training, knowledge transfer and skills sharing.
Two pathways, one direction
As MedEWSa draws to a close, the two strands of work have produced very different results in terms of tools, methods and fields of application. On the one hand, models, machine learning and simulations to improve wildfire forecasting and management in a complex setting such as Ethiopia. On the other, participatory methodologies, operational tools and training to strengthen the relationship between early warning systems, institutions and communities.
What brings the two strands together is precisely the need to bridge the gap between information and action.
A more accurate forecast can contribute to better decision-making. Planning developed together with communities can help make those decisions more understandable, shared and actionable. It is through the combination of these elements – scientific knowledge, operational tools, institutional capacity and participation – that an early warning system can become truly effective.
Ultimately, this is the direction in which CIMA Research Foundation has worked: transforming risk knowledge into tools that support decision-making and help communities become better prepared to face risk.
- The collaboration began as part of the UNDRR project Disaster Risk Reduction Capacity Building in Ethiopia: Development of an Information Management System for Early Warning for Forest Fires in Ethiopia, which focused on developing an early warning system for forest fires in the country. ↩︎
- Sivanu, S., Zeilstra, M. A., Gomes, I., Fraschini, F., Vrotsou, C., Theodosiou, S., & Kinkladze, I. (2025). Handbook of best practices and warning messaging templates to address societal challenges on natural hazard effects. Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17542761 ↩︎