{"id":13635,"date":"2025-04-10T09:46:57","date_gmt":"2025-04-10T08:46:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.cimafoundation.org\/?p=13635"},"modified":"2025-04-10T09:46:57","modified_gmt":"2025-04-10T08:46:57","slug":"melting-point-italy-faces-its-snow-water-balance","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.cimafoundation.org\/en\/news\/melting-point-italy-faces-its-snow-water-balance\/","title":{"rendered":"Melting point: Italy faces its snow water balance"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">There comes a time every year when snow changes both its physical state and its meaning. From a winter deposit, it turns into liquid water, ready to flow downhill. This is the critical transition from accumulation to melt: a seasonal threshold that affects water availability, agriculture, energy production, and ultimately the livability of entire regions. In Italy, April marks the beginning of this shift. It also brings the<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cimafoundation.org\/en\/italy-snow-updates\/\"> fifth monthly snow report<\/a> by CIMA Research Foundation, offering a detailed snapshot of the snow-derived water resource across the country. The data, as always, are clear: the national <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cimafoundation.org\/en\/italy-snow-updates\/\">Snow Water Equivalent (SWE)<\/a> deficit remains at -34%. Despite this critical figure, signs of recovery are beginning to emerge. It&#8217;s a partial rebound\u2014yet a significant one.       <\/p>\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-wp-embed is-provider-flourish wp-block-embed-flourish\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" title=\"Interactive or visual content\" src=\"https:\/\/flo.uri.sh\/visualisation\/22514294\/embed#?secret=xIxnC6oUSz\" data-secret=\"xIxnC6oUSz\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" height=\"575\" width=\"700\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">A recovery driven by the North<\/h2>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">What made the difference in recent weeks was an atmospheric &#8220;turnaround&#8221;. In the second half of March, most of Italy\u2014excluding Sicily and Calabria\u2014experienced abundant precipitation, accompanied by below-average temperatures, particularly over the western Alps. It was here, in the northwest, that the snowpack responded most effectively. The Alps capitalized on the meteorological window, accumulating fresh snow and reducing the SWE deficit, at least partially.   <\/p>\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-7387b849 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-dominant-color=\"c5dfe0\" data-has-transparency=\"false\" style=\"--dominant-color: #c5dfe0;\" fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"1009\" src=\"https:\/\/www.cimafoundation.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/SPI-1024x1009.avif\" alt=\"SPI March 2025&#010;Precipitation anomaly Italy&#010;CIMA - Melting point: Italy faces its snow water balance\" class=\"wp-image-13614 not-transparent\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.cimafoundation.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/SPI-1024x1009.avif 1024w, https:\/\/www.cimafoundation.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/SPI-300x296.avif 300w, https:\/\/www.cimafoundation.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/SPI-768x757.avif 768w, https:\/\/www.cimafoundation.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/SPI-1536x1514.avif 1536w, https:\/\/www.cimafoundation.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/SPI-2048x2018.avif 2048w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-dominant-color=\"d1ddd7\" data-has-transparency=\"false\" style=\"--dominant-color: #d1ddd7;\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"1009\" src=\"https:\/\/www.cimafoundation.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/T-1-1024x1009.avif\" alt=\"T anomaly March 2025&#010;Temperature anomaly Italy&#010;CIMA - Melting point: Italy faces its snow water balance\" class=\"wp-image-13616 not-transparent\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.cimafoundation.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/T-1-1024x1009.avif 1024w, https:\/\/www.cimafoundation.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/T-1-300x296.avif 300w, https:\/\/www.cimafoundation.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/T-1-768x757.avif 768w, https:\/\/www.cimafoundation.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/T-1-1536x1514.avif 1536w, https:\/\/www.cimafoundation.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/T-1-2048x2018.avif 2048w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Po river basin, the largest in the country and the reservoir of nearly half of Italy\u2019s snow-derived water, currently shows the most favorable conditions: its deficit has dropped to -15%, falling within the range of natural variability observed in recent years. However, the melting season has now begun, and the window for further improvement is narrowing. <\/p>\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-wp-embed is-provider-flourish wp-block-embed-flourish\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" title=\"Interactive or visual content\" src=\"https:\/\/flo.uri.sh\/visualisation\/22514585\/embed#?secret=XFAhiIsViZ\" data-secret=\"XFAhiIsViZ\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" height=\"575\" width=\"700\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The picture is different in the Adige river basin, where the deficit stands at -37%. Here too, March had brought some recovery, but recent warm temperatures have already triggered early melting, bringing SWE values back down. <\/p>\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-wp-embed is-provider-flourish wp-block-embed-flourish\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" title=\"Interactive or visual content\" src=\"https:\/\/flo.uri.sh\/visualisation\/22514882\/embed#?secret=516EiFPz3O\" data-secret=\"516EiFPz3O\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" height=\"575\" width=\"700\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cTemperature increases, more than the absence of precipitation, have defined this season so far. In recent years we\u2019ve been witnessing a shortening of the snow cycle: snow arrives late, melts early, and spends less time available to contribute to the hydrological balance,\u201d explains Francesco Avanzi, researcher at CIMA Research Foundation.<\/p>\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Apennines: the weight of absence<\/h2>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The story changes dramatically moving south. In the Apennines, snow is virtually absent at all elevations. One striking figure: in the Tiber River basin, the SWE deficit now reaches -89%. This is a severe anomaly\u2014worse than during the same period in 2024.   <\/p>\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-wp-embed is-provider-flourish wp-block-embed-flourish\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" title=\"Interactive or visual content\" src=\"https:\/\/flo.uri.sh\/visualisation\/22514477\/embed#?secret=467cvphnkm\" data-secret=\"467cvphnkm\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" height=\"575\" width=\"700\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-7387b849 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-wp-embed is-provider-flourish wp-block-embed-flourish\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" title=\"Interactive or visual content\" src=\"https:\/\/flo.uri.sh\/visualisation\/22514938\/embed#?secret=E2KqfBMOgc\" data-secret=\"E2KqfBMOgc\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" height=\"575\" width=\"700\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The only partial exception is on the Adriatic side, where recent snowfalls led to a slight improvement, particularly in the Aterno-Pescara basin, now showing a -43% deficit. This east-west discrepancy is consistent with the orography and climatology of the Apennine range, but conditions nonetheless remain well below historical averages.  <\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">From a seasonal ranking perspective, northern Italy currently sits in the lower-middle range since 2011. The worst year for the northwest was 2022, while 2017 marked the nadir for the northeast. Although the current season has not reached those extremes, it offers little reassurance. In the Apennines, by contrast, this is what we might call the \u201crelegation zone\u201d: one of the poorest snow seasons of the past decade.   <\/p>\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-dominant-color=\"e9e6e9\" data-has-transparency=\"false\" style=\"--dominant-color: #e9e6e9;\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"702\" src=\"https:\/\/www.cimafoundation.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/rank-regioni-neve-6-aprile--1024x702.avif\" alt=\"Ranking Italian regions from 2011 to 2025&#010;CIMA - Melting point: Italy faces its snow water balance\" class=\"wp-image-13623 not-transparent\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.cimafoundation.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/rank-regioni-neve-6-aprile--1024x702.avif 1024w, https:\/\/www.cimafoundation.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/rank-regioni-neve-6-aprile--300x206.avif 300w, https:\/\/www.cimafoundation.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/rank-regioni-neve-6-aprile--768x527.avif 768w, https:\/\/www.cimafoundation.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/rank-regioni-neve-6-aprile--1536x1054.avif 1536w, https:\/\/www.cimafoundation.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/rank-regioni-neve-6-aprile--2048x1405.avif 2048w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Seasonal Forecasts for Italy: looking ahead<\/h2>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Adding complexity to the picture are the new seasonal forecasts from the national meteorological agency, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.agenziaitaliameteo.it\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">ItaliaMeteo<\/a>, available for the first time with country-specific spatial detail<sup data-fn=\"61d5422f-fa11-4fb5-9cd8-430ee99493e2\" class=\"fn\"><a id=\"61d5422f-fa11-4fb5-9cd8-430ee99493e2-link\" href=\"#61d5422f-fa11-4fb5-9cd8-430ee99493e2\">1<\/a><\/sup>. According to these projections, the remainder of April is expected to be drier than average in the north, and slightly wetter in central and southern regions. Temperatures, meanwhile, are forecast to be cooler than average across the country in April. In the following months, temperatures are projected to rise above the norm nationwide, while precipitation is expected to follow climatological patterns.   <\/p>\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-7387b849 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-dominant-color=\"e8ede1\" data-has-transparency=\"false\" style=\"--dominant-color: #e8ede1;\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"867\" height=\"1024\" src=\"https:\/\/www.cimafoundation.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/anomalia_precipitazione_2025_04-867x1024.avif\" alt=\"Seasonal forecast - Precipitation anomaly Italy&#010;CIMA - Melting point: Italy faces its snow water balance\" class=\"wp-image-13625 not-transparent\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.cimafoundation.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/anomalia_precipitazione_2025_04-867x1024.avif 867w, https:\/\/www.cimafoundation.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/anomalia_precipitazione_2025_04-254x300.avif 254w, https:\/\/www.cimafoundation.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/anomalia_precipitazione_2025_04-768x907.avif 768w, https:\/\/www.cimafoundation.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/anomalia_precipitazione_2025_04-1301x1536.avif 1301w, https:\/\/www.cimafoundation.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/anomalia_precipitazione_2025_04-1735x2048.avif 1735w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 867px) 100vw, 867px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-dominant-color=\"ece3e2\" data-has-transparency=\"false\" style=\"--dominant-color: #ece3e2;\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"867\" height=\"1024\" src=\"https:\/\/www.cimafoundation.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/anomalia_temperatura_2025_04-867x1024.avif\" alt=\"Seasonal forecast - Temperature anomaly Italy&#010;CIMA - Melting point: Italy faces its snow water balance\" class=\"wp-image-13627 not-transparent\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.cimafoundation.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/anomalia_temperatura_2025_04-867x1024.avif 867w, https:\/\/www.cimafoundation.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/anomalia_temperatura_2025_04-254x300.avif 254w, https:\/\/www.cimafoundation.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/anomalia_temperatura_2025_04-768x907.avif 768w, https:\/\/www.cimafoundation.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/anomalia_temperatura_2025_04-1301x1536.avif 1301w, https:\/\/www.cimafoundation.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/anomalia_temperatura_2025_04-1735x2048.avif 1735w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 867px) 100vw, 867px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In the short term, this suggests a potential deceleration in snowmelt, especially at higher elevations. However, the lack of above-average precipitation in the north\u2014if confirmed\u2014also signals the end of the 2024\/25 accumulation season. \u201cWhen we talk about snow as a water resource, we cannot limit ourselves to the amount of snowfall: it\u2019s the timing and spatial distribution, combined with thermal conditions, that determine its actual hydrological usefulness. A heavy snowfall followed by a rapid temperature rise, for instance, is less effective than a more moderate but stable season,\u201d Avanzi explains.   <\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In summary, this is a transitional season. Snow has fallen\u2014partially. Precipitation has not been entirely lacking. But so far, warmth has been the dominant factor, with above-average temperatures altering the spatial and temporal distribution of snow in many areas. In the coming months, we will better understand the extent of this impact. For now, attention turns to the melt: it is the speed of this process that will determine the actual water availability downstream\u2014and with it, the resilience of the territories.       <\/p>\n<ol class=\"wp-block-footnotes\"><li id=\"61d5422f-fa11-4fb5-9cd8-430ee99493e2\">Based on ECMWF long-range forecasts, ItaliaMeteo applies a statistical algorithm to increase spatial resolution and calibrate predictions using past data, thereby improving their forecast reliability. <a href=\"#61d5422f-fa11-4fb5-9cd8-430ee99493e2-link\" aria-label=\"Jump to footnote reference 1\">\u21a9\ufe0e<\/a><\/li><\/ol>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>There comes a time every year when snow changes both its physical state and its meaning. From a winter deposit, it turns into liquid water, ready to flow downhill. This is the critical transition from accumulation to melt: a seasonal threshold that affects water availability, agriculture, energy production, and ultimately the livability of entire regions. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":13633,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"[{\"id\":\"61d5422f-fa11-4fb5-9cd8-430ee99493e2\",\"content\":\"Based on ECMWF long-range forecasts, ItaliaMeteo applies a statistical algorithm to increase spatial resolution and calibrate predictions using past data, thereby improving their forecast reliability.\"}]"},"categories":[124],"tags":[87,88],"class_list":["post-13635","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-hydrology-and-hydraulics","tag-italy","tag-snow"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.cimafoundation.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13635","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.cimafoundation.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.cimafoundation.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.cimafoundation.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.cimafoundation.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13635"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.cimafoundation.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13635\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":13636,"href":"https:\/\/www.cimafoundation.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13635\/revisions\/13636"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.cimafoundation.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/13633"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.cimafoundation.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13635"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.cimafoundation.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13635"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.cimafoundation.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13635"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}