Between 2015-2016, CIMA Research Foundation conducted a national study on behalf of Trenitalia, the primary train operator in Italy, on the management of extraordinary operating events resulting from external causes. The objective was to verify in which routes there was an inadequate level of risk to passenger safety due to external events such as landslides, floods or risk of industrial explosion.
The National Railway Safety Agency (ANSF) had raised objections to Trenitalia regarding the management of external events. Therefore, in 2015 CIMA Research Foundation was assigned the task of developing a methodology for the estimation of risk deriving from external causes, to be applied to the entire national territory. Characteristic of the analysis was the need to apply it to the entire national territory in a short time while maintaining a useful level of detail. Based on the data provided by Trenitalia for the different routes (stations, lengths, type of track) and trains (number, days and times of circulation), a database was created for each specific route.
Subsequently, by carrying out an analysis of the basin plans and other documents, a perimeter of the areas at risk of landslides or floods was created. This information was then cross-referenced with the route data of the railway routes. For the part relating to major industrial accidents, an assessment of external emergency plans was carried out to identify the areas of impact.
Once the probability of an external event occurring was defined, all the elements of probability and severity were cross-referenced to calculate the risk in the different areas of the railway network. The risk was classified into four different categories: Negligible, Tolerable,Undesirable and Intolerable. The degree Undesirable and even more so the degree Intolerable are those on which mitigation action must be taken.
The methodology has shown that most of the network is classified asNegligible and Tolerable and only in some cases Undesirable, while it has never been Intolerable for any of the three types of external events.
Finally, a further analysis was carried out to assess where an initial estimate had provided an undesirable risk, which sections of the network had the presence of works, bridges or tunnels that could manage and/or minimize the risk. The results were then made available to Trenitalia on the DEWETRA platform.